July Global Shipping Market Dynamics Forecast

1.Container freight rates continue to strengthen

The SCFI index price, which is a benchmark for spot freight rates, has risen by 6.9% in the recent week, affected by the news that the Red Sea crisis will spread to the next year. The EU's 2025 medium and long-term freight rate index has recorded strong growth.

2. Global port congestion continues but the degree has eased

As of the end of last week, a total of 2.24 million tons of global shipping capacity was waiting in the anchorage. Asia remains a hotspot for port congestion, with Southeast Asian ports accounting for about 23% of the world's shipping capacity waiting for berths, while North Asia and the Middle East/Indian Subcontinent account for 20% and 11% respectively;

Southeast Asia: The delay time for Singapore's berthing is still as long as 4-5 days, and due to the skip-berthing, the number of queuing ships waiting to berth has decreased; the delay time for Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas Port is 2-3 days;

China: Shanghai and Ningbo are currently the ports in China that have been seriously affected, with delays of 4 days and 2 days respectively;

The Indian subcontinent: Delays in Colombo and Mumbai are the most severe, with delays of around 3 days;

Middle East: The delay time at Dubai Port has been extended to 3 days again after improvement last month.

3.Maritime market dynamics

China-USA

With the launch of overtime ships and new routes in the western United States, the pressure on space in the western United States has eased; however, due to weight restrictions and empty flights, as well as port congestion in Charleston, the pressure on space in the eastern United States continues.

In early July, shipping companies once again successfully pushed up GRI, and the freight rate for large containers in the East Coast of the United States has exceeded 10,000 US dollars. The peak season surcharge (PSS) for long-term customers continues to rise.

The seasonal goods of North American retailers will be shipped in July, and the future space situation will continue to be under pressure, which is expected to further boost the freight rate.

China-Latin America

The new shipping routes and additional ships launched by shipping companies in Mexico have helped to digest some of the backlog of goods in the market, thus slowing down the upward trend of freight rates.

The market demand has slightly cooled down, and the pressure on cabin space has eased compared to previous periods, but the overall tight situation of cabin space has not been reversed. It is expected that the situation of cabin overbooking will continue until the end of July.

With the arrival of the rainy season, the Panama Canal Authority announced that it would increase the number of ships passing through and the draft limit per day, which means that the navigation capacity of the Panama Canal has been basically restored.

China - Europe

The overall cargo volume remains strong, and most shipping companies have already run out of space by the end of July.

The SCFI European freight rate index has surged by 12.5% in the recent week, and it is expected that the freight rate will remain high throughout July.

The overall situation of container supply has not improved, and there are container shortages in major domestic ports of origin. Due to the strict control of shipping companies on the printing of packing lists, cancellations and delays in shipping caused by container shortages are common.

Due to the concentration of ships arriving at ports, the container storage rate in major ports in Germany/Netherlands/Belgium is high, which has a slight impact on port operations.

China-Mediterranean

The volume of booking has slowed down since the first week of July, and there is no sign of continued increase in the volume of subsequent booking.

In the recent week, the SCFI freight rate index still rose by 11%. With the traditional summer low season in Mediterranean countries approaching, it is expected that the freight rate will stabilize or even reverse from late July.

The situation of missing containers has not improved, and the situation at the barge port is particularly severe. It is recommended that customers ship from major ports.

Compared to the basic ports on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, the availability of shipping space in the western coast of the Mediterranean and the Adriatic Sea region is relatively tight.